Thursday, April 28, 2011

Anekdootti ennusteista

One incident that occurred while [Kenneth] Arrow was forecasting the weather illustrates both uncertainty and human unwillingness to accept it. Some officers had been assigned the task of forecasting the weather a month ahead, but Arrow and his statisticians found that their long-range forecasts were no better than numbers pulled out of a hat. The forecasters agreed and asked their superiors to be relieved of this duty. The reply was: "The Commanding General is well aware that the forecasts are no good. However, he needs them for planning purposes
."

Peter L. Bernsteinin kirjasta Against the Gods. Lähteenä Arrow'n kirjoitus teokseen Eminent Economists: Their Life and Philosophies

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